Highlights

• • Allen career record 1-8 with recent hard-court losses
• • Market price (1.86) implies ~53.8% which is inconsistent with Allen's form

Pros

• + Small-sample variance in tennis can allow occasional upsets
• + Allen has experience at Monastir events (familiarity with venue)

Cons

• - Very weak recent results (1 win in 9 matches)
• - Losses on the same surface reduce confidence in an improved outcome; current odds do not offer value

Details

We assess Louis Allen's win probability considerably below the market-implied price. Allen's documented record is 1-8 (≈11% raw win rate) over his short career, with recent losses on hard courts in Monastir — the same event/venue as this match. The market is pricing this as essentially a coin flip (decimal 1.86 → implied ~53.8%), which is not supported by Allen's form or results. We therefore find no value on Allen at 1.86. There is no sourced data for Niklas Grunewald in the provided research to justify flipping this view and backing him at 1.86; absent verifiable evidence that his true win probability exceeds the market-implied ~53.8%, we cannot identify value on either side. Consequently we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Louis Allen recent record 1-8 (very poor form)
• • Recent losses occurred on hard courts in Monastir (same surface/venue)
• • Market-implied probability (~53.8% at 1.86) is far higher than Allen's reasonable true chance