Highlights

• • Home odds 2.40 imply 41.67% — we estimate 42.0% win chance
• • Edge is tiny (EV ≈ +0.008) and driven by limited information on the home player

Pros

• + Slight positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Underdog mispricing possible due to limited public data on Louis Bowden

Cons

• - Very small margin of value — susceptible to estimation error
• - High uncertainty from thin data sets and no head-to-head or injury info

Details

We estimate a slight edge on the home underdog (Louis Bowden) because the available research shows Luc Koenig is a short-priced favorite (1.52) despite only a small sample of matches (5-3 on hard) and mixed recent results, while there is no detailed profile for Bowden available — creating uncertainty that can produce value on the underdog. At the quoted home price of 2.40 (implied 41.67%), our conservative true-win estimate for Bowden is 42.0%, which yields a small positive EV: 0.42 * 2.40 - 1 = +0.008 (0.8% ROI). Given the limited data and high variance in low-level tennis, the edge is marginal and comes with significant uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Luc Koenig has limited professional sample (5-3) but on hard courts and is priced as the clear favorite
• • Research shows mixed recent results for Koenig (losses and wins in close timeframe), indicating vulnerability
• • No available profile or form data for Louis Bowden in the provided research, increasing uncertainty and potential mispricing of the underdog