Louis Tessa vs Karunuday Singh

Highlights

• • Singh priced at 1.309; implied 76.4% vs our 80% estimate
• • Tessa has no grass pedigree and poor recent results

Pros

• + Current price (1.309) offers a small positive expected value versus our probability estimate
• + Clear surface and form disadvantage for the underdog (Tessa) supports a high true win probability for Singh

Cons

• - Edge is modest (≈4.7% ROI) and sensitive to estimation error
• - Limited publicly provided data on Singh in the research increases uncertainty of our true-probability estimate

Details

The market prices Karunuday Singh at 1.309 (implied ~76.4%). Louis Tessa has limited pro experience (24 matches, 10-14), poor recent form and no recorded matches on grass (surface is outdoor grass), which increases the matchup advantage for Singh. Given Tessa's lack of grass history and subpar recent results, we estimate Singh's true win probability at 80%. At that probability the fair decimal value is 1.25, so the current price of 1.309 offers small positive value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.80 * 1.309 - 1 = +0.0472 (≈ +4.7% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the away player at the available price, acknowledging the edge is modest and dependent on limited data.

Key factors

• • Tessa has no recorded grass match experience, increasing uncertainty and likely disadvantaging him on grass
• • Tessa's recent form is poor (10-14 career, weak recent results), supporting a strong probability gap in favor of Singh
• • Market implied probability for Singh is ~76.4%; our estimate of 80% implies a modest positive edge at 1.309