Highlights

• • Away odds 1.77 imply 56.5% — we estimate 61%
• • Positive EV at current price: ~+0.08 units per 1.00 staked

Pros

• + Current market price offers measurable edge versus our probability
• + Larue's recent form and small career sample tilt expectation toward the away player

Cons

• - Research lacks direct data on Stefan Seifert and H2H history, increasing uncertainty
• - Small sample sizes and limited match data make probability estimates less stable

Details

We estimate Stefan Seifert is the stronger pick given Louis Larue's limited sample (13 career matches, 5-8 record) and poor recent form on hard courts. The market prices the away player at 1.77 (implied win probability 56.5%); we assign a true win probability for the away player of 61% based on Larue's negative recent trend and lack of wins in the latest hard events. At our estimate the bet has positive value: EV = 0.61 * 1.77 - 1 = +0.0797 (≈+7.97% per unit). We use the quoted current away odds 1.77 for this calculation. Key uncertainties are limited data on the opponent and small sample sizes, which we account for by keeping our probability estimate conservative but still above the market-implied probability.

Key factors

• • Louis Larue limited career sample (13 matches) with overall losing record (5-8)
• • Recent hard-court form is poor with only one recent win noted
• • Market-implied probability (56.5%) is below our estimated 61%, creating value