Louis Larue vs Vivek Kolluru
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices are extremely lopsided toward Larue but not supported by his modest record and recent form; no value exists at current odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Home odds 1.02 imply ~98% probability — implausible given Larue's results
- • Fair odds based on our estimate ≈ 1.667 (60% win chance)
Pros
- + We avoid betting into heavy market bias with poor informational support
- + Clear quantitative gap between implied market probability and our estimated probability
Cons
- - High uncertainty due to complete absence of data on the opponent (Kolluru)
- - If Kolluru is significantly weaker than Larue (unknown), market may actually be correct — uncertainty remains
Details
We see a large market price skew: the home line of 1.02 implies ~98.0% chance of a Larue win, which is not supported by the available performance data. Louis Larue has a short pro record (13 matches, 5-8) with recent results showing limited success and a poor run in his latest hard-court events. There is no provided information on Vivek Kolluru to justify such an overwhelming market edge for Larue. Based on Larue's overall win-loss and recent form, we estimate Larue's true win probability around 60% — generous given the lack of opponent data — which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.667. At the current market price (1.02) the expected return using our probability is negative (EV = 0.60 * 1.02 - 1 = -0.388), so there is no value to back either side at the quoted prices. We therefore recommend taking no bet unless the market offers at least decimal ~1.667 on Larue (or >14.0 on Kolluru if deeper analysis of Kolluru supported a >7% chance).
Key factors
- • Larue's limited pro sample (13 matches) and sub .500 record (5-8)
- • Recent hard-court form is weak with few wins in latest events
- • Market price (1.02) implies an unrealistic ~98% probability given available data and no information on the opponent