Louna Zoppas vs Maddalena Giordano
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value backing the away (Maddalena Giordano) at 3.71 — our estimated win probability (35%) implies a minimum fair price of 2.857, so the current price yields ~30% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Market overprices the home at 1.254 given similar player profiles
- • Away at 3.71 exceeds our fair-price threshold (2.857) and offers positive EV
Pros
- + Strong edge between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
- + No obvious negative factors (injury/form) in the research to undermine the away pick
Cons
- - Small-sample and noisy ITF results increase variance and model uncertainty
- - If home advantage or unreported factors are larger than assumed, the value edge could evaporate
Details
We find value on Maddalena Giordano (away). The market prices Louna Zoppas at 1.254 (implied ~79.7%), which is outsized given the research: both players show nearly identical recent records (10-21) and similar surface experience with no clear injury or H2H edge reported. A genuine home edge at this level is unlikely to be so large; after adjusting for parity and a modest home advantage, we estimate Giordano's true win chance at ~35%, materially above the market-implied ~27.0% for the away at 3.71. The minimum fair decimal price for that 35% probability is 2.857; the current 3.71 offers positive EV (EV = 0.35*3.71 - 1 ≈ +0.299). We therefore recommend the away at current widely-available prices.
Key factors
- • Market implies an outsized favorite probability (~79.7%) that seems unjustified by parity in form and records
- • Both players have nearly identical career records and surface histories, reducing the likelihood of an overwhelming favorite
- • No reported injuries or clear H2H advantage; modest home/seed edge assumed rather than decisive