Highlights

• • Estimated home win probability 88% (fair odds ~1.136).
• • Current home odds 1.11 yield slightly negative EV (~-0.023 per unit).

Pros

• + Clear market favorite simplifies probability assignment.
• + Conservative approach avoids overbetting on incomplete information.

Cons

• - Lack of surface/fitness/form/H2H data increases uncertainty around the probability estimate.
• - Tiny edges (if any) would be eroded by market vig and execution costs.

Details

We assume a strong favorite in Luana Avelar but have no external form, surface, or injury data to increase confidence. Using a conservative estimated true win probability of 88% for the home player, the fair decimal price would be ~1.136. The market price of 1.11 for the home implies ~90.1% and is slightly shorter than our estimate, producing a small negative expected value. The away price (6.1) also offers no value against our conservative estimate of a ~12% chance. Given the absence of independent data and the tight margin, neither side meets our value threshold at current prices.

Key factors

• • Heavy market favorite with short odds (home 1.11) leaving little margin
• • No external data on surface, form, injuries or H2H — we adopt conservative probability estimates
• • Market implied probability slightly exceeds our conservative true probability estimate, creating negative EV