Highlights

• • Home implied probability (2.12) = ~47.2%; our estimate = 48.0%
• • Positive but small EV: ~+0.0176 units per 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Koenig has demonstrable hard-court match experience in the provided data
• + Current price (2.12) is slightly better than our fair odds estimate (~2.083)

Cons

• - Both players have very limited match samples in the research, increasing variance
• - Edge is very small and could be erased by unobserved factors (injury, conditions, match-up specifics)

Details

We see a small value on the home moneyline. The market price of Luc Koenig at 2.12 implies a win probability of ~47.2%. Given the research: Koenig has played primarily on hard courts with recent results there and a 5-3 record overall, while Zsombor Velcz's recorded match activity is on clay with a 3-3 record and no noted hard-court experience in the provided data. Taking surface exposure and relative form into account, we estimate Koenig's true win probability at 48.0%. At that probability the fair odds are ~2.083; the offered 2.12 is slightly superior to fair value, producing a small positive expected value. The edge is modest and driven largely by surface fit and the imbalance in relevant match experience rather than strong sample-size evidence.

Key factors

• • Luc Koenig has recorded matches and wins on hard courts; Velcz's recorded matches are on clay
• • Market-implied probability (home 47.2%) is slightly lower than our estimated probability (48.0%)
• • Small sample sizes for both players increase uncertainty and variance