Highlights

• • Market implies 66.2% for Luca (1.51); our estimate is ~60.0%
• • Break-even price for Luca is ~1.667 — current 1.51 is too short

Pros

• + Luca has a noticeably better career win-rate and more match volume
• + Home/favorite status and marginally stronger record make Luca the reasonable pre-match favorite

Cons

• - Neither player has grass experience, increasing variance and reducing predictive confidence
• - Recent results for both show losses at Challenger/ITF level, lowering expected performance reliability

Details

We estimate Luca Castelnuovo is the stronger player on paper: a 36-23 career record versus Ye Cong Mo's 20-20, and a higher recent overall win rate. However, both players have virtually no recorded grass experience and both show recent losses in Challenger-level events, increasing outcome uncertainty. The market price of 1.51 for Luca implies a 66.2% win probability; our synthesis of form, experience, and surface uncertainty yields a true win probability for Luca closer to 60.0%, which does not justify taking the 1.51 line. At our p=0.60 the fair decimal price is ~1.667, so the current 1.51 offers negative expected value. Given the limited data, lack of grass history, and recent poor results from both players, we do not find value on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Luca's superior overall win rate (36-23) versus Ye (20-20)
• • Both players have no recorded grass matches — added uncertainty on the surface
• • Recent form shows losses for both at Challenger/ITF level, reducing confidence in a large edge
• • Market-implied probability for Luca (66.2%) appears higher than our estimated true probability (60.0%)