Highlights

• • Market implies ~92.3% chance for Castelnuovo (decimal 1.084)
• • Our estimated true probability ~65% implies we need ~1.538+ to find value

Pros

• + Castelnuovo has a substantially better overall win-loss record and more match experience
• + Large market consensus on Castelnuovo indicates expected dominance if surface is non-factor

Cons

• - Match is on grass and Castelnuovo lacks recorded grass experience in the provided data
• - Current odds (1.084) require an implausibly high true probability (>92%) to be profitable

Details

We compare the market price (Luca Castelnuovo 1.084, implied ~92.3%) to a conservative true-win estimate based on the provided profiles. Castelnuovo has a markedly better overall record (36-23 vs 7-17) and many more matches, which favors him. However, the match is on grass and the research shows Castelnuovo's recorded surfaces are clay/hard while Inui has played grass; that reduces our confidence in stating an >92% chance for Castelnuovo. Inui's overall record is poor, but his grass experience limits the magnitude of edge. Balancing the stronger overall form of Castelnuovo against the surface uncertainty, we estimate Castelnuovo's true win probability around 65%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price is ~1.538, well above the offered 1.084, so there is no value on the heavy favourite. We therefore recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Home has substantially stronger overall win-loss record (36-23 vs 7-17)
• • Match surface is grass; Castelnuovo has no recorded grass matches while Inui does, reducing favourite certainty
• • Current market price implies >92% chance, which is far above our realistic estimate (~65%)