Luca Pow vs Rafael Jodar
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market is marginally overconfident on Jodar at 1.13; the small negative EV means we pass — wait for a slightly longer price (≥1.136) to find value.
Highlights
- • Jodar is the clear favorite based on win-loss and hard-court experience
- • Current odds (1.13) are just a touch too short relative to our model (requires ≥1.136)
Pros
- + Jodar’s superior sample size and win rate on hard courts supports heavy favoritism
- + No reported injuries or red flags in the provided data
Cons
- - Edge is extremely small — market price almost exactly matches our assessment
- - Limited detail available (no H2H, no in-depth match stats), increasing uncertainty
Details
We compare the market price (Rafael Jodar 1.13) to our win-probability estimate built from the provided profiles. Jodar has a stronger overall record (20-9) and more matches on hard courts versus Luca Pow (9-7), so he is the clear favorite; both players have recent hard-court activity. The market-implied probability for Jodar at 1.13 is ~88.5%. Based on the available data (records, surface overlap and recent results), we estimate Jodar's true win probability at 88.0% (0.88). That implies a fair decimal price of 1.136 — slightly longer than the current 1.13. The current price therefore offers no positive expected value (EV = 0.88 * 1.13 - 1 = -0.0056, a small negative ROI). Given the minimal edge (if any) and limited additional information (no injury or H2H details), we do not recommend taking the market favorite; required odds would need to be at least 1.136 to be profitable by our estimate.
Key factors
- • Rafael Jodar stronger overall record (20-9) vs Luca Pow (9-7)
- • Both players have recent hard-court activity; surface favors Jodar's experience
- • Market-implied probability (88.5%) slightly exceeds our estimate (88.0%)