Luca Castelnuovo vs Marat Sharipov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected at current prices. The favorite's market price is too tight relative to our conservative 74% win probability estimate given the lack of grass evidence.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Sharipov: ~75.9%
- • Our conservative estimated probability for Sharipov: 74.0% → no positive EV at current odds
Pros
- + Sharipov has a marginally better overall record in the provided data
- + Market correctly favors the more consistent player, reducing long-shot appeal for an upset
Cons
- - Neither player has clear grass form in the provided research, increasing uncertainty
- - The favorite's current price leaves no profitable margin after accounting for surface and form uncertainty
Details
We compared the market price (Sharipov 1.317, implied ~75.9%) to our assessment of the match. Both players have similar Challenger-level records and little to no grass resume in the provided data, meaning surface-related uncertainty reduces confidence in a large edge. Given the available form data (both showing recent losses and no clear grass advantage) we estimate Marat Sharipov's true chance at ~74.0%, which implies a fair decimal price of ~1.351. At the market price of 1.317 the expected value is slightly negative, so there is no clear value bet on either side with the current quotes.
Key factors
- • Both players' career data in Research show primary experience on clay/hard, not grass
- • Records are similar (Sharipov 41-24 vs Castelnuovo 36-23) — no dominant discrepancy
- • Market strongly favors Sharipov (1.317) but surface uncertainty and recent form reduce confidence in a large edge