Luca Castelnuovo vs Marat Sharipov

Highlights

• • Home (Luca) implied chance 30.1% vs our estimate 36% — positive EV
• • Away (Marat) is too short at 1.344 relative to our estimated 64% chance

Pros

• + Significant margin between market-implied and our estimated probability for Luca
• + Grass inexperience for both increases variance and underdog value

Cons

• - Limited data on grass performance increases model uncertainty
• - Both players have recent losses; form could change and invalidate the edge

Details

We compare market pricing (Home 3.32, Away 1.344) to our estimated win probabilities based solely on the supplied data. Both players have similar career win rates on recorded surfaces (Luca 36-23, Marat 41-24) and both lack documented grass experience, which increases match variance and reduces the certainty of a heavy favorite. The market heavily favors Marat (implied ~74.4%) which appears inflated given the comparable career records and the lack of grass track record for either player. We therefore assign Luca a true win probability of 36%, which implies fair odds of ~2.78; the current price of 3.32 for Luca offers positive expected value (EV = 0.36 * 3.32 - 1 = +0.195). The away price of 1.344 is priced too short relative to our estimated probability for Marat (~64%), producing negative EV. Given limited data and the surface uncertainty, we treat this as a medium-risk value play on the home underdog.

Key factors

• • Both players' recorded match history is on clay and hard only; no documented grass experience
• • Career records are similar (Luca 36-23, Marat 41-24) which argues for a closer match than market implies
• • Market heavily favors the away player, creating a potential value opportunity on the home underdog
• • Both show recent losses in the supplied recent results, increasing match unpredictability