Highlights

• • Jasika has documented grass experience while Castelnuovo does not
• • Current price offers a small value gap vs our estimate (implied 68.7% vs our 70%)

Pros

• + Surface familiarity advantage for Jasika
• + Larger match sample and marginally stronger recent form support our probability estimate

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈2% ROI) — susceptible to variance
• - No head-to-head data available and limited specific-match intel increases uncertainty

Details

The market prices Omar Jasika at 1.457 (implied win probability ~68.7%). We estimate Jasika's true probability at 70% given the surface and career profiles: Jasika has recorded play on grass and a larger recent match sample (72 matches, 45-26) while Luca Castelnuovo's profile lists only clay and hard court experience and shows weaker recent results. That surface edge on grass plus Jasika's deeper experience and recent form justify a modest edge over the market. Comparing probabilities: implied 0.687 vs our 0.700 gives a positive expected value (EV = 0.700 * 1.457 - 1 ≈ 0.020), so the away price contains small but exploitable value.

Key factors

• • Surface proficiency: Jasika has recorded grass experience; Castelnuovo has no grass matches listed
• • Comparative career/sample size and recent form favor Jasika (72 matches, 45-26 vs 59 matches, 36-23)
• • Market-implied probability (≈68.7%) is slightly below our estimated win probability (70%) creating a small positive edge