Highlights

• • Implied probability at 1.13 = 88.5% vs our estimated 22%
• • Break-even decimal odds for Parenti are ~4.545 based on our estimate

Pros

• + Clear quantitative mismatch between market price and documented recent results
• + Conservative stance avoids taking negative EV action given limited opponent data

Cons

• - Our probability is driven primarily by a small sample (10 matches) and may under- or over-estimate true ability
• - Lack of any opponent data prevents constructing a profitable play on the underdog with confidence

Details

We compared the market price (Luca Parenti 1.13 decimal, implied probability 88.5%) to the player's documented recent form. Parenti's career sample in 2025 is 10 matches with a 2-8 record (20% raw win rate) and recent losses noted; using that documented form we estimate a realistic win probability materially below the market's implied 88.5%. Even allowing for sample noise and potential contextual factors, a reasonable estimated_true_probability for Parenti is 22% (0.22), which implies fair decimal odds of about 4.545. At the current favorite price of 1.13 the expected value is heavily negative (EV = 0.22 * 1.13 - 1 = -0.751). Given the lack of any research data for the opponent (Filippo Busciola) in the provided sources, we cannot justify siding with the short-priced favorite nor confidently back the away player; the market price for Parenti shows no value and is likely mispriced relative to the documented form. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices and require minimum decimal odds of ~4.545 to consider backing Parenti profitably based on our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Parenti's documented 2025 record is 2-8 across 10 matches, indicating poor recent form
• • Market price (1.13) implies an 88.5% chance which is far above our estimated 22% true probability
• • No supplied data on the opponent (Busciola) prevents confident contrarian selection; uncertainty is high