Highlights

• • Hemery on grass = experience advantage
• • Price 1.637 > required 1.587 for break-even, yielding ~3.1% ROI

Pros

• + Clear surface-experience edge for Hemery
• + Market price contains a small exploitable margin versus our estimate

Cons

• - Edge is small — sensitive to small errors in probability estimate
• - Potenza’s strong overall form could translate unpredictably to grass

Details

We see the market favoring Calvin Hemery at 1.637 (implied ~61.1%) versus Luca Potenza at 2.32 (implied ~43.1%). Potenza has a stronger overall win rate historically, but his documented match history shows no grass experience while Hemery lists grass among his surfaces — on a grass court that surface experience is a meaningful advantage. Both players have recent activity in Istanbul and no injury flags in the provided research, so form differences are mainly surface- and experience-driven. We estimate Hemery's true chance around 63.0%, which implies fair odds of ~1.587; the available price of 1.637 therefore offers a small positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.031 per 1 unit). Given the modest edge and surface-dependent uncertainty, we recommend taking Hemery only because current odds exceed our min required decimal odds for value.

Key factors

• • Hemery has documented grass experience; Potenza does not
• • Potenza has a superior overall win-rate but it’s primarily on clay/hard
• • Market odds (1.637) are slightly higher than our fair price (1.587) for Hemery