Luca Potenza vs Fabrizio Andaloro
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing the home player Luca Potenza at 2.10 — our 53% estimated win probability yields ~11.3% ROI versus the market-implied ~47.6%.
Highlights
- • Market implies 47.6% for Potenza but we estimate 53%
- • Positive EV of +0.113 per 1 unit at current price 2.10
Pros
- + Slightly better career win-rate and recent qualifying wins
- + Current price (2.10) offers a clear mathematical edge if our probability estimate holds
Cons
- - No head-to-head data or explicit surface for this match in the provided research
- - Recent sample size is limited and tennis matches can be volatile — outcomes can deviate from expectations
Details
We see the market pricing Fabrizio Andaloro as the favorite at 1.667 (implied ~60.0%), while Luca Potenza is available at 2.10 (implied ~47.6%). Based on the provided profiles, Potenza has a slightly better career win rate (46-23, ~66.7% career W-L) than Andaloro (40-22, ~64.5%) and shows recent qualifying wins (early September), whereas Andaloro's recent listed matches are losses in mid-August. Both players have experience on clay and hard, so there is no clear surface advantage from the supplied data. Given Potenza's marginally stronger overall record and more recent positive results versus Andaloro's recent losses, we estimate Potenza's true chance of winning this matchup at 53.0%. At the current decimal price of 2.10 this implies positive expected value (EV = 0.53 * 2.10 - 1 = +0.113). We note uncertainty from the lack of H2H, limited context on surface/conditions for this specific event, and the small sample of recent results, so we assign a medium risk level despite the positive EV.
Key factors
- • Potenza has a slightly superior overall win-loss record (46-23 vs 40-22)
- • Recent form favors Potenza (qualifying wins in early September) vs Andaloro's recent losses
- • Market overprices Andaloro (1.667) relative to Potenza's realistic win chance, creating value at 2.10