Luca Potenza vs Remy Bertola

Highlights

• • Potenza's historical win-rate is noticeably higher than Bertola's
• • Current odds of 2.49 for Potenza exceed our min required odds of 2.174, producing positive EV

Pros

• + Clear pricing discrepancy between implied and our estimated probability
• + No documented injuries or form drop-offs in the provided research

Cons

• - Limited direct matchup (H2H) data in the research increases uncertainty
• - Tennis match outcomes have high variance; a single match can swing either way

Details

We see a clear pricing edge backing Luca Potenza (home). Market decimal odds put Potenza at 2.49 (implied win probability 40.2%) while his career record (46-23, ~66.7% overall win rate) and comparative form against Remy Bertola (45-33, ~57.7%) suggest Potenza should be given a higher chance than the market is pricing. We conservatively estimate Potenza's true win probability at 46.0% based on: a) materially better historical win rate, b) both players having experience on clay and hard (no obvious surface disadvantage), and c) recent comparable activity without injury flags. At our estimate (p=0.46) the min required decimal odds to break even is 2.174; the offered 2.49 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.46 * 2.49 - 1 = +0.145 (14.5% ROI per unit staked). We use the current quoted price for Potenza (odds 2.49) as the odds_used_for_ev.

Key factors

• • Potenza has a superior career win-rate (46-23 vs 45-33) suggesting a quality edge
• • Both players have recent match activity on clay and hard—no clear surface disadvantage found
• • Market heavily favors Bertola (1.505) creating a likely mispricing for Potenza at 2.49
• • No injury or absence information in the provided research to justify the favorite's short price