Luca Wiedenmann vs Chirag Duhan
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Chirag Duhan (away) at 2.75 — our model estimates his true win chance at ~46%, producing a positive EV of +0.265 per unit staked versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Market overprices home at implied 72% while away implied is ~36%
- • Duhan's larger sample and higher win rate create a favorable edge at 2.75
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds
- + Stronger empirical win-rate and much larger match sample for Duhan
Cons
- - Limited direct matchup or surface-specific data in the provided research
- - Recent match activity for Duhan is older (May 2025) compared with Wiedenmann's August 2025 matches, adding uncertainty
Details
We identify value on Chirag Duhan at current decimal odds 2.75. The market-implied probability for Luca Wiedenmann (home) at 1.388 is ~72.0%, which is far higher than the on-record performance data supports. Wiedenmann's competitive sample is very small (7 matches) with a 2-5 record (≈29% wins) and recent losses in August 2025. Duhan has a substantially larger sample (34 matches) with a 16-18 record (≈47% wins) and recent competitive clay/hard activity through May 2025. Given the discrepancy between the market's heavy lean toward the home player and the head-to-head available indicators (career win rates, sample sizes, and recent form), we estimate Duhan's true win probability materially above the market's implied 36.4% for the away. Using our estimated true probability of 46%, the EV at 2.75 is positive (EV = 0.46 * 2.75 - 1 = +0.265), which satisfies our value criterion. We note uncertainty due to limited direct matchup data, undefined surface for this specific match, and differences in recency, so we assign a medium risk rating.
Key factors
- • Market implies home win probability ~72.0% (1.388) which appears overstated
- • Chirag Duhan has larger sample size and higher career win rate (16-18, ≈47%) vs Wiedenmann (2-5, ≈29%)
- • Recent form: Wiedenmann has recent losses in Aug 2025; Duhan's last recorded losses were in May 2025 but overall more match experience
- • Surface/venue not specified in provided data, adding uncertainty
- • Small sample for Wiedenmann increases variance and likelihood of market mispricing