Highlights

• • Book market implies ~80.9% for Gerch; we estimate ~82%
• • Small positive EV (~0.014 per 1.00 staked) at current price

Pros

• + Clear experience and historical performance gap
• + Both players recent activity on clay favors the more seasoned Gerch

Cons

• - Edge is small — narrow margin vs bookmaker price
• - Tanner's form volatility and small sample size add outcome uncertainty

Details

We see value on Lucas Gerch at the available price. The market-implied probability for Gerch at 1.237 is ~80.9%, while our assessed win probability is higher at 82%. Our view is driven by a large experience and performance gap: Gerch has a long career (405 matches, 233 wins) and consistent results on clay/hard, while Tanner is very inexperienced (28 matches, 6 wins) with a weak overall win rate. Both players have recent match activity on clay, but Tanner's small sample and poor career win percentage increase the likelihood Gerch advances. Comparing probabilities, the bookmaker's price underestimates Gerch by ~1.1 percentage points, producing a small positive expected value when backing Gerch at 1.237. We used the quoted home moneyline (1.237) to compute EV.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-count advantage for Gerch (405 matches vs 28)
• • Career win rates favor Gerch substantially (Gerch ~57.6% vs Tanner ~21.4%)
• • Both have recent clay matches, but Tanner's limited sample increases variance and downside risk