Highlights

• • Current market for Bernet looks overstated given limited, noisy data
• • Gerch’s larger match sample and event form support a ~40% win estimate

Pros

• + Positive EV at widely available current odds (2.68 vs required 2.50)
• + Gerch shows more match experience and solid overall winning record

Cons

• - Player statistics in research are truncated/corrupted, increasing uncertainty
• - Bernet’s recent match wins suggest form that could justify market favoritism

Details

We see the market pricing Henry Bernet at ~1.426 (implied win probability ~70%), which appears rich given the limited and noisy data in the research. Lucas Gerch has a larger match sample (37 matches, 23-14) and has recent clay match activity in the same event as Bernet; Bernet’s profile shows strong but inconsistent/suspect individual match statistics (data artifacts) and a much smaller overall sample (14 matches). Conservatively estimating Gerch’s true win probability at 40% (0.40) yields a fair decimal line of 2.50; the current market price of 2.68 therefore offers positive expected value. We use the quoted current odds (2.68) for the EV calculation and recognize uncertainty from truncated/noisy stat lines and small sample sizes, so we assign a medium risk level.

Key factors

• • Market implies Bernet win ~70% (1/1.426) which seems high vs available player data
• • Gerch has larger sample size and solid overall record (23-14) across surfaces
• • Bernet’s dataset is much smaller (9-5) and contains inconsistent/suspect stat entries
• • Both players show recent clay results at the same event, reducing surface mismatch concern