Highlights

• • Staeheli implied probability (38.6%) is below his documented win-rate (45.5%)
• • Minimum fair odds for Staeheli based on our probability is ~2.198, while current market offers 2.59

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price (EV ≈ 17.9%)
• + Underdog price appears to incorporate a modest margin that creates value relative to small-sample win-rate

Cons

• - Staeheli sample size is small (11 matches) making the estimated probability noisy
• - Gerch's larger sample and superior overall record increase the risk that market assessment is correct

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability (Away 2.59 -> 38.6%) to a conservative estimate of Luca Staeheli's true win probability based on the provided data. Staeheli's career record in the research sample is 5-6 (45.5%), which exceeds the implied 38.6% from the 2.59 price. Lucas Gerch has a stronger aggregate record (23-14, ~62.2%) and is the favorite at 1.45 (implied 68.97%), but the market appears to overstate Gerch's chance relative to the raw head-to-head-absent, sample-based win rates we have. Using Staeheli's documented win rate (5/11 = 45.5%) as a baseline for his true probability yields positive expected value at the available 2.59 price. We remain conservative because Staeheli's sample is small and recent-match stats in the research are noisy, so we do not inflate his probability beyond the documented win-rate.

Key factors

• • Staeheli career win-rate in provided data is 5/11 = 45.5%, above the implied 38.6% at 2.59
• • Gerch has a larger sample and higher overall win-rate (23/37 = 62.2%), but the market price (1.45) implies a higher advantage than the available head-to-head/form details justify
• • Both players have clay experience in the provided records; no injury information is given, increasing reliance on win-rate comparison
• • Small sample size for Staeheli increases variance but also creates potential bookmaker mispricing opportunity