Highlights

• • Conservative true win probability estimate (74%) exceeds market-implied probability
• • Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ 0.049)

Pros

• + Underdog opponent has a distinctly weak record and recent form
• + Market price provides a cushion above our fair odds

Cons

• - Margin of value is modest and sensitive to our probability estimate
• - Tennis matches can produce upsets; limited sample and situational factors could swing outcome

Details

We estimate Lucia Ros Parres is a clear favorite and that the market price offers small but positive value. The market-implied probability for the home side at 1.417 is about 70.6% (1/1.417). Verena Meliss's documented record (10-21) and a run of recent losses suggest her winning ceiling is substantially below that implied market price; using her career win rate and recent form we conservatively estimate Lucia's true win probability at 74%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.351, making the available 1.417 a positive-expectation wager. We account for market vig and uncertainty, but the margin is sufficient for value given the underdog's poor recent performance and limited win rate.

Key factors

• • Away player Verena Meliss has a 10-21 career record and weak recent form
• • Market-implied home probability (≈70.6%) is slightly lower than our estimated true probability (74%)
• • Available decimal 1.417 exceeds the fair price implied by our model (≈1.351), producing positive EV