Highlights

• • Market implied Pellegrino chance ~25% vs our 35% estimate
• • Required fair odds for value on Pellegrino ≈ 2.857; current price 3.97 is attractive

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current price (≈39% ROI on a 1-unit bet)
• + Pellegrino's greater match experience and multi-surface history reduce variance on grass

Cons

• - Limited direct evidence in provided data specific to grass head-to-head or recent grass form
• - Darderi's smaller sample size could hide upside or matchup-specific advantages not captured here

Details

The market heavily favors Darderi at 1.267 (implied ~78.9%) while Pellegrino is at 3.97 (implied ~25.2%). Our read of the provided profiles suggests the market margin is overstating Darderi. Career win rates are similar (Darderi ~53%, Pellegrino ~52%), but Pellegrino brings much greater match experience across surfaces including grass, which is the surface for this final. Both players reached the Genoa final (recent clay results noted), but clay form in Genoa does not directly translate to grass. Given the small sample of Darderi's career and the modest edge he shows in the data, we estimate Pellegrino's true win probability at 35%, which implies required odds of ~2.857. The current price of 3.97 for Pellegrino offers positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 3.97 - 1 ≈ 0.39), so we recommend the away side based on value rather than backing the heavy favorite.

Key factors

• • Market implies an outsized favorite (Darderi ~78.9%) not supported by career win-rates
• • Pellegrino has far greater career experience and has played on grass historically
• • Recent Genoa results were on clay and may not transfer to a grass final