Highlights

• • Darderi has grass experience; small surface edge
• • Current favorite price (1.107) is too short relative to our probability estimate

Pros

• + Surface familiarity favors Darderi
• + Market strongly favors the expected favorite, reducing chance for profitable lay opportunities

Cons

• - Bookmaker price for Darderi offers negative EV relative to our estimate
• - Gentzsch's superior overall record suggests upset risk if grass adaptation is better than documented

Details

We compare the market price (Luciano Darderi 1.107) to our assessment of the true probability. Darderi has recorded grass experience while Gentzsch's profile lists clay and hard only, giving Darderi a surface edge for this grass SF. Gentzsch's superior overall record (55-26 vs 34-30) suggests a higher baseline level, but much of that form is on non-grass surfaces. Conservatively we estimate Darderi's win probability at 85% on grass vs Gentzsch. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.176, meaning the current market price of 1.107 is too short; EV = 0.85 * 1.107 - 1 = -0.059 (approx -5.9% ROI) so there is no value on Darderi at the quoted price. The away line (7.38) implies a tiny chance; even allowing for underestimation of Gentzsch's grass ability, the payout would need to be substantially larger to present value. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Surface: Darderi has grass experience; Gentzsch's profile lists clay/hard only
• • Form and match volume: Gentzsch has stronger overall record but largely on non-grass surfaces
• • Market price is extremely short for Darderi (1.107) and below our fair price (~1.176)