Lucie Petruzelova vs Kalina Aleksandrov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a bet. The favorite's price (1.02) is too short relative to our ~80% win probability, producing a negative expected value.
Highlights
- • Book odds imply ~98% for Petruzelova; our estimate is ~80%
- • Current prices offer no positive EV for either side given available information
Pros
- + Weaker-seeming favorite on paper which still may be the true favorite in match-up terms
- + Market clearly identifies a favorite, so match-up might be one-sided if opponent is very inexperienced
Cons
- - Extreme market price (1.02) requires implausibly high win probability to be profitable
- - Insufficient information on the opponent increases model uncertainty and risk of mispricing
Details
We find no value in the market prices. The book market prices Lucie Petruzelova at 1.02 (implied ~98.0% win probability). Based on the available player data, Petruzelova's recent form and season record (10-21 overall with recent losses) do not support an almost-certain outcome; we estimate her true chance to win this match at 80%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.25, so the current 1.02 offers a substantial negative expected value for backers. Conversely, the away price of 15.0 implies a ~6.7% chance; while we lack specific information on Kalina Aleksandrov to upgrade that probability, the market gap is large and the available data do not justify taking the long shot. Given the limited opponent information, mixed form for the favorite, and the extreme market skew, we prefer to pass rather than force a bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for the favorite (1.02) is ~98%, which is far above what Petruzelova's recent form justifies
- • Petruzelova's season record is 10-21 with recent consecutive losses, indicating vulnerability rather than near-certainty
- • No reliable opponent data provided, increasing uncertainty and making extreme market prices risky