Highlights

• • Market extreme: home 1.05 implies ~95% — inconsistent with Petruzelova's 10-21 record
• • At our 30% estimate, away needed odds are 3.333; current 8.5 yields EV = +1.55 per unit

Pros

• + Very large positive EV at the quoted away price
• + Market likely overreacting or mispricing given Petruzelova's poor recent record

Cons

• - We have limited/no opponent (Krzesniak) data in the provided research, increasing uncertainty
• - Extreme market skew may be driven by contextual factors not present in the provided sources

Details

We view the market pricing (home 1.05 / away 8.5) as heavily skewed toward Lucie Petruzelova despite the available data showing she is not dominant: her career 2024–2025 record is 10-21 with recent losses on hard courts, which undermines a ~95% implied win probability (1.05 decimal). Using a conservative true probability that Kornelia Krzesniak wins of 30%, the away line at 8.5 offers clear value. At p=0.30 the break-even decimal odds are 3.333; the offered 8.5 is far above that, producing an expected ROI of +155% (EV = 0.30 * 8.5 - 1 = 1.55). We therefore recommend backing the away player at the current publicly available price (odds used for EV: 8.5), while noting uncertainty from limited opponent-specific data and short-term form indicators.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~95% win probability for home (1.05) which is implausible given Petruzelova's 10-21 record
• • Petruzelova's recent form shows consecutive losses on hard courts, reducing confidence in a heavy favorite
• • Lack of opponent-specific data (Krzesniak) increases uncertainty but amplifies value when market is this extreme