Highlights

• • Current market implies Urbanova ~60% but data doesn't support that gap
• • Dols' estimated fair odds ~1.923; market pays 2.06

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current prices (EV ≈ 7.1%)
• + Decision backed by objective comparison of career records and surface neutrality

Cons

• - Small edge — limited sample sizes and inconsistent recent form
• - No head-to-head or injury info provided, increasing outcome variance

Details

We find value on Sara Dols (away). The market prices Lucie Urbanova as the clear favorite at 1.667 (implied ~60%), but the underlying data in the research shows both players with nearly identical career records (Urbanova 10-22 in 32 matches, Dols 10-21 in 31 matches) and similar surface experience (clay and hard). Dols has a marginally better win rate by matches played (10/31 ≈ 32.3% vs 10/32 ≈ 31.3%) and similar recent results, which does not justify Urbanova being a 60% market favorite. Conservatively we estimate Dols' true win probability at 52%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.923. At the current available price of 2.06 there is positive expected value (EV = 0.52 * 2.06 - 1 ≈ 0.071). We therefore recommend the away selection only because the quoted price (2.06) exceeds our min_required_decimal_odds of 1.923 and yields positive EV. Key uncertainties include limited head-to-head data, small sample sizes, and both players' recent inconsistent form, so the edge is modest.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records but Dols has a slight edge in win-rate (10/31 vs 10/32)
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard — surface neutral
• • Market overpricing Urbanova (1.667) creates value on Dols at 2.06