Highlights

• • Home price 3.87 implies ~25.8%; we estimate Lucija at ~38%
• • Estimated EV ~+0.47 per 1 unit stake on Lucija at current odds

Pros

• + Large margin between market odds and our fair odds (3.87 vs ~2.63)
• + Both players' recent results and surfaces in the research do not justify the heavy favoritism for Niemeier

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form and overall records — match is inherently volatile
• - No H2H, injury, or detailed surface-specific performance in the research to refine the model; estimate uncertainty is high

Details

The market strongly favors Jule Niemeier at 1.264 (implied ~79.1%) while the available match data shows both players have very similar career records and recent form (both ~10-22 overall in the provided span, recent losses at Challenger events). We estimate Lucija Ciric Bagaric's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 25.8% for the home player — because the head-to-head/surface edge is not evident in the provided data and both players have comparable recent results on clay/hard. Using a conservative true probability of 38% for Lucija versus the bookmaker price of 3.87 yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.38 * 3.87 - 1 ≈ +0.471). In contrast, Niemeier at 1.264 requires an implied win probability of ~79% which is not supported by the comparable records and recent results in the research, so we view Niemeier as overbet with negative EV at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have highly similar career records and recent form in the provided data (about 10-22)
• • Bookmaker price for Niemeier (1.264) implies a probability not supported by the comparable statistics
• • No clear surface or injury advantage evident in the provided research to justify the heavy favoritism