Lucky Candra Kurniawan vs Alexander Klintcharov

Highlights

• • Market implies ~77.8% for Klintcharov, which seems excessive versus his 24-26 record
• • Home at 3.8 requires only a 26.3% implied probability to be profitable; our estimate of 40% yields +0.52 EV

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at quoted home price (3.8) under conservative probability estimate
• + Klintcharov's documented record and mixed recent results do not justify such a short price

Cons

• - Research set lacks any performance details for Lucky Candra, increasing uncertainty in the 40% estimate
• - Short favorite could still win comfortably — match-level variance in tennis is high

Details

We find value on the home underdog (Lucky Candra Kurniawan) because the market's price on Alexander Klintcharov (1.285 decimal, implied ~77.8%) looks overstated given the limited data available. Klintcharov's career record in the provided profile is 24-26 (~48% win rate) across surfaces and his recent Bali results are mixed (one win, one loss in the cited entries), which does not support nearly 78% true-win probability against an R16 opponent. With incomplete information on Lucky Candra in the research set, the fair head-to-head balance at this ITF level is likely much closer than the market implies. Using a conservative true probability estimate of 40% for the home player (60% for Klintcharov), the home price of 3.8 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.4 * 3.8 - 1 = 0.52). By contrast, backing Klintcharov at 1.285 would require our estimated true probability to be ~77.8% to break even, which is inconsistent with his 24-26 career record and mixed recent form.

Key factors

• • Klintcharov's provided career record is 24-26 (~48% win rate), not consistent with market-implied 77.8%
• • Recent listed Bali results are mixed (one win, one loss) on hard courts
• • Research contains no performance detail for Lucky Candra, increasing uncertainty and likelihood market overprices favorite