Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Kulikova: ~32.8%; our estimate: 43%
• • Expected value at current odds: ~0.312 units per 1 unit staked (31.2% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
• + Both players' provided records are similar, reducing the chance that hidden form or surface advantages justify the short favorite

Cons

• - Research is limited and both players have poor recent records; uncertainty is material
• - No H2H, injury, or contextual tournament data in the provided sources to further validate the edge

Details

We find value on Anastasia Kulikova (away). The market implies a ~32.8% win probability for Kulikova at 3.05 (1/3.05 = 0.3279). The available research shows both players with virtually identical profiles (10-21 records, same surfaces played, no decisive recent edge or injury info). There is no clear basis in the provided data to justify the market giving Lucrezia Stefanini ~73.5% win probability. Conservatively, we estimate Kulikova's true chance at 43.0%, which is substantially higher than the market-implied 32.8%, producing positive expected value. At our estimate the fair decimal price would be ~2.326, so the offered 3.05 represents meaningful value even after accounting for uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records and surfaces played in provided data (10-21), so no clear form edge
• • Bookmaker prices heavily favor the home player (1.36) which implies a low probability for the away player (3.05 -> 32.8%)
• • Given the lack of distinguishing information, a conservative true probability for the away player (~43%) yields positive EV versus the offered price