Lucrezia Stefanini vs Magdalena Frech

Highlights

• • Stefanini estimated win probability 36% vs market-implied ~31.7%
• • Required fair odds for value: 2.778; current price 3.15 offers positive EV

Pros

• + Clear value vs market price based on comparable player data
• + Reasonable upside with EV ~13% if our probability estimate is correct

Cons

• - Limited and non-differentiating data in the research set increases uncertainty
• - Both players have poor recent results, raising match unpredictability

Details

We see near-identical career records (both 10-21) and similar recent form on hard courts from the provided profiles, yet the market prices Magdalena Frech as a heavy favorite at 1.395 (implied ~71.7%). Given the comparable data points (surface experience, recent results) there is insufficient evidence to justify such a large gap. We estimate Frech is the stronger player but not to the extent implied by 1.395; a realistic true probability for Frech is closer to 64% with Lucrezia Stefanini around 36%. At that valuation Stefanini at 3.15 offers value: EV = 0.36 * 3.15 - 1 = +0.134 (13.4% ROI). The minimum fair decimal price for Stefanini at p=0.36 is 2.778, well below the current 3.15. Key uncertainties include very limited distinguishing data, lack of explicit injury or head-to-head information, and both players' recent losing streaks, so we take a conservative probability edge in favor of Stefanini rather than a larger one.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) in the provided profiles
• • Market heavily favors Frech (1.395 implied) despite similar recent form and surfaces played
• • No injury reports or decisive H2H info in the data; valuation relies on comparative form and implied price