Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~75.2% vs our estimate 65%
• • Fair decimal price by our view ≈ 1.538; market is shorter at 1.33

Pros

• + Luis has a positive recent record (4-2) in supplied data
• + Bookmaker price reflects favourite status, which could be justified if unseen facts favor him

Cons

• - Very small sample and surface-specific results (mostly clay) create model uncertainty
• - No information on opponent or match surface in the provided research

Details

We find the listed price (Home 1.33 -> implied win probability ~75.2%) too short relative to the information available. Luis Felipe Miguel's profile shows a very small sample (career span and results concentrated in late July 2025: 6 matches, 4-2, primarily on clay). There is no usable data on the opponent in the supplied research and no confirmation of surface for this USA match. Given the small sample size, surface-specific results (clay), and the unknown strength/style of Youcef Rihane, we apply a conservative true-win estimate of 65% for Miguel. At that belief, the fair decimal price is ~1.538, which is considerably longer than the market 1.33. Plugging our probability into the market odds yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.65 * 1.33 - 1 ≈ -0.136). Therefore there is no value at the current price and we advise taking no side.

Key factors

• • Very small and recent sample for Miguel (6 matches, 4-2) with most results on clay
• • Market implies ~75.2% for the home favourite at 1.33, which exceeds our conservative 65% true estimate
• • Opponent details and match surface not available in the research, increasing uncertainty