Luisina Giovannini vs Katarina Jokic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given near-identical profiles and lack of supporting evidence for the heavy favorite, Jokic at 3.28 represents value versus our estimated 46% win probability.
Highlights
- • Market implies 77% for the home player despite comparable data
- • Underdog price (3.28) exceeds our fair odds threshold (2.174)
Pros
- + Clear pricing discrepancy between market favorite and available player data
- + Required odds for value (2.174) are well below current price (3.28)
Cons
- - Research is limited — no H2H, detailed surface breakdown for this specific event, or injury/news to refine probability
- - Underdog outcomes are inherently higher variance despite positive EV
Details
The available profiles show Luisina Giovannini and Katarina Jokic with nearly identical career spans (2024-09-30 to 2025-09-08), identical 10-21 records and similar recent form — there is no clear performance edge in the research provided. Market prices currently make Giovannini a strong favorite at 1.298 (implied 77.0%), a level not supported by the comparable data. We estimate Jokic's true win probability at 46% given the parity in records, surfaces played and lack of injury/H2H information; at decimal 3.28 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.46 * 3.28 - 1 = 0.509). The minimum fair odds we would require for Jokic, given our probability, are 2.174; the market price of 3.28 is well above that threshold, creating value on the away underdog.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form in the provided profiles
- • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information in the research to justify a heavy favorite
- • Market heavily favors the home player (1.298), creating a value opportunity on the underdog at 3.28