Highlights

• • Market implies home win ~87%, but player profiles indicate a much closer matchup.
• • Fair price for the favorite is roughly 1.667; current 1.145 is negative EV.

Pros

• + Clear, conservative assessment avoids betting into an extreme market misprice.
• + We provide a specific fair-price threshold to watch if prices shift.

Cons

• - If there are undisclosed factors (injury, withdrawal, strong recent form) not in the research, our assessment could be missing drivers of true probability.
• - Market may move quickly; this recommendation is based only on the provided limited data.

Details

We compare the market price (Luisina Giovannini 1.145 implied ~87.3%) to our assessment based on the available player data. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form from the supplied profiles, with no clear surface or injury advantage for Giovannini. Given that parity, a realistic true probability for Giovannini is far lower than the market-implied 87.3%. We estimate Giovannini’s true win probability at 60.0% (market is overstating her chances). At that probability the minimum fair decimal price would be ~1.667; the current price of 1.145 produces a large negative expected value, so there is no value on the heavy favourite. The huge underdog price on Sahaja looks attractive only because the market price is extreme, but the research does not justify such a lopsided market — we prefer to avoid wagering into an evidently mispriced market without additional confirming information.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the supplied data
• • No clear surface, injury or form edge favoring the home player in the research
• • Market-implied probability for the home player (87.3%) is implausibly high given available information