Highlights

• • Home implied probability (82.6%) appears unjustified by the supplied data
• • At our 40% estimate, the away at 4.04 has ~61.6% ROI

Pros

• + Large market mispricing creates a high expected-value opportunity
• + Conservative probability estimate still yields strong positive EV at current odds

Cons

• - Profiles and results provided are sparse and nearly identical, increasing uncertainty
• - Lack of ranking, H2H, or surface-specific performance data increases variance risk

Details

Both players' available profiles and recent results are essentially identical (10-21 career records, similar recent losses, same surfaces played), so there is no clear on-paper performance edge for the listed favorite. The market price (home 1.21 -> implied 82.6% win chance) appears overstated given the lack of distinguishing data. We conservatively estimate Zuzanna Pawlikowska's true win probability at 40% (0.40). At the current away decimal price of 4.04 this produces substantial positive value: EV = 0.40 * 4.04 - 1 = 0.616 (61.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). By contrast the home implied probability (1/1.21 = 82.6%) is far above any reasonable estimate from the available profiles, so the value play is the away underdog at the quoted 4.04.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Bookmakers' heavy favoritism of the home player (1.21) is not supported by available performance differences
• • No injury or H2H information provided to justify the large home market edge