Luisina Giovannini vs Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso

Highlights

• • Profiles show similar 10-21 / 10-22 records and comparable surface experience
• • Current market odds imply an implausible ~95% chance for the home player

Pros

• + Home listing suggests the book sees an edge (possible non-public info or withdrawal risk), which could create value if odds move
• + Both players' limited records make large price swings possible — monitor market

Cons

• - Available public data does not support the extreme favorite pricing
• - EV at current odds is strongly negative; betting now would be unprofitable

Details

Market prices (home 1.05 / away 10.0) imply an extreme probability for the home player (~95%) that is not supported by the available player profiles. Both players have nearly identical career records (around 10-21 / 10-22) and similar surface experience (clay and hard) and recent form shows multiple losses; there is no clear dominance for the home player that would justify the book's heavy favorite pricing. Using a conservative true-play estimate that Luisina Giovannini has a ~55% chance to win (slightly favored based on home listing but not overwhelming evidence), the fair decimal price would be ~1.818. At the offered home price of 1.05 the expected value is strongly negative (EV = 0.55*1.05 - 1 = -0.4225), so there is no value on either side at current odds. We therefore recommend no bet and note that you would only consider betting on the home player if you could obtain odds >= 1.818 or on the away player if odds exceeded ~1/0.45 = 2.222.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and little to distinguish them
• • Recent form shows multiple losses for both players; no clear momentum advantage
• • Market is heavily pricing the home player without supporting data — likely mispricing but not in bettor's favor