Highlights

• • Market makes Giovannini an ~85% favorite despite a 10-21 career record in provided data
• • At 4.67, Sieg only needs ~33.3% implied probability to break even; we estimate ~30% and still see positive EV

Pros

• + Strong value if our experience-based probability holds (EV ~40%)
• + Sieg's broad surface experience supports a higher true win probability than the market implies

Cons

• - Limited recent-match detail in the research—form and head-to-head info are sparse
• - Giovannini may have tournament momentum (QF appearance) not fully captured in aggregated career stats

Details

We see a large divergence between market pricing and the players' career profiles. The market makes Luisina Giovannini a very strong favorite at 1.174 (implied ~85%), but her career record in the provided data is 10-21 across 31 matches since 2024, while Madison Sieg has a long, successful career (559-507 over 1066 matches) with experience on the relevant surfaces. Given Sieg's vastly greater experience, broader surface competency, and much higher career win total, we estimate the market is overstating Giovannini's chance here. Using a conservative true probability of 30% for Sieg to win against the market-implied ~21.4% (4.67 decimal), the away price offers positive expected value. At the quoted 4.67, EV = 0.30 * 4.67 - 1 = 0.401 (40.1% ROI). We are assuming no reported injuries or withdrawals in the provided research and that both players advanced to the quarterfinals by winning earlier rounds; that reduces uncertainty about match fitness. Given these factors, the away side (Madison Sieg) represents value at current widely-available odds.

Key factors

• • Large experience and career-win differential in favor of Madison Sieg (559 vs 10 wins in provided data)
• • Giovannini's limited sample (31 matches) and 10-21 record suggests lower baseline quality than market implies
• • Current price disparity: market implies ~21.4% for Sieg while our assessment is ~30%, creating positive EV at 4.67