Highlights

• • Market implies ~47% for Fullana; we estimate ~55% — clear value at 2.13
• • Large experience and career-win differential is the core edge

Pros

• + Significant experience advantage (1066 matches) likely helps in tight ITF QF scenarios
• + Career-level win percentage advantage suggests higher baseline performance

Cons

• - Recent form items in the provided last-match snippets show losses for both players, which adds noise
• - Limited match-specific/contextual info (event surface and H2H unknown) increases uncertainty

Details

We see value backing the home player, Luiza Fullana, at 2.13. The market implies a win probability of ~0.470 for Fullana (1/2.13). Our analysis prices Fullana at 0.55 probability based on a large career sample and superior career win-rate/experience versus Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez, who has a short professional record and a substantially lower win percentage. Both players show recent losses in the provided last-match lines, but Fullana's long career (559-507) across surfaces suggests greater consistency and resilience in ITF-level events. With our 0.55 estimate, the fair decimal price is ~1.818; the current 2.13 quote therefore offers positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Experience gap: Fullana has 1066 career matches vs Reasco's 31, favoring match toughness and adaptability
• • Career win rates: Fullana ~52.4% career win rate vs Reasco ~32.3%, indicating a substantive quality gap
• • Market inefficiency: Market-implied probability (46.99%) underestimates Fullana relative to our 55% model