Highlights

• • Market implies only ~7.7% for Fullana at 13.0 despite stronger career record
• • Our fair odds (1.667) vs market (13.0) creates a very large EV opportunity

Pros

• + Clear statistical advantage from career win-rate and experience
• + Huge discrepancy between our assessed probability and market odds

Cons

• - Research lacks definitive surface/venue and injury status — these could reverse the edge
• - Renata's small sample (31 matches) makes direct comparisons noisy and market may reflect information not in provided data

Details

We find strong value on Luiza Fullana at 13.0. The market-implied probability for Fullana at 13.0 is only ~7.7%, while a fundamentals-based read (Fullana 559-507 career vs Zarazua 10-21, both play clay/hard) favors Fullana by a large margin. Using career win rates and relative strength adjustment we estimate Fullana's true win probability at 60%. That implies fair decimal odds ~1.667; the offered 13.0 is a massive misprice. Using the current quoted price (13.0) the expected return is p*odds - 1 = 0.60*13.0 - 1 = 6.8 (680% ROI). Caveats: limited recent-match detail and unknown match surface/conditions could alter the edge, but based on the provided profiles and the extreme market price, Fullana represents clear positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Fullana much larger career sample and superior overall win rate (559-507) versus Zarazua (10-21)
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard; no clear surface edge favoring Zarazua in provided data
• • Market price is extreme (Zarazua 1.01) and likely mispriced given the players' records and sample sizes