Highlights

• • We estimate Mikrut win prob ~67%; required fair odds ≈ 1.493
• • Available home odds 1.42 produce negative expected value (-0.049), so we recommend no bet

Pros

• + Clearer edge for Mikrut based on career win rate and match results in the provided data
• + Market still prices Mikrut as favorite, reflecting his stronger profile

Cons

• - No grass-specific performance data for either player in the research increases uncertainty
• - Current bookmakers' price for Mikrut (1.42) is too short to provide positive expected value

Details

We compared the market prices (home 1.42 / away 2.89) with our assessment of true win probability. Luka Mikrut has a superior career win rate (48-20) versus Lorenzo Carboni (36-25) in the provided sample, which makes Mikrut the stronger player on paper. However, the match is on grass and neither profile shows clear grass form in the provided research, so we downgrade certainty. Normalizing the market overround gives an implied fair market chance for Mikrut around 0.67; our conservative true probability estimate is 0.67. At that estimate the minimum fair decimal price would be ~1.493, while the available home price (1.42) is below that threshold. Using the quoted odds (1.42) produces a small negative EV, so we do not recommend taking the home moneyline at current prices.

Key factors

• • Mikrut has a noticeably stronger overall win-loss record in the provided data
• • Match is on grass but neither player shows grass form in the supplied profiles, increasing uncertainty
• • Current home price (1.42) implies a probability above our conservative estimate and offers no positive EV