Luka Mikrut vs Zdenek Kolar
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Zdenek Kolar at 2.16 — our 50% win estimate gives a positive EV (~8%), but both players' lack of grass history raises variance.
Highlights
- • Kolar appears undervalued relative to our 50% estimate
- • Grass surface introduces uncertainty for both players
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current market price (EV ≈ 8%)
- + Kolar's superior overall record and recent Biella win support the pick
Cons
- - Very limited grass data for both players increases outcome variance
- - Market favors Mikrut at 1.73 — bookmaker pricing may incorporate unseen factors
Details
We estimate Zdenek Kolar is undervalued by the market on grass here. The market-implied probability at the posted prices is 46.3% for Kolar (2.16) and 57.8% for Mikrut (1.73). Our read of the limited research shows Kolar with a stronger overall win-loss record and a recent win at Biella, while Mikrut's recent results appear weaker. Both players have primary experience on clay and hard courts and limited grass form, which raises variance, but that applies equally to both. Given Kolar's superior career win rate and recent positive form at this event, we put his true win probability at ~50.0%, which makes the current 2.16 quote offer positive expected value (EV = 0.08). We recommend taking the away side only because EV>0 at available prices, while acknowledging elevated uncertainty on grass.
Key factors
- • Kolar has the stronger win-loss profile and recent winning form at this event
- • Mikrut shows weaker recent results in the supplied research
- • Both players have limited recorded grass experience, increasing matchup variance