Highlights

• • Luka shows a stronger career win rate (61.4%) in the provided data
• • Current home price 1.55 implies ~64.5% — above our assessed probability

Pros

• + Luka's documented career win percentage is materially higher than Diego's in the provided research
• + Both players' recent results are available and do not show a clear injury or form advantage for Diego

Cons

• - Market price for Luka is too short relative to his career win rate in the research
• - No head-to-head, clear surface advantage, or injury information in the provided material to justify moving our probability higher

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.55 -> implied 64.5%) to our assessed win probability for Luka Pavlovic based on the provided research. Luka's career win rate in the research is 35-22 (35/57 = 61.4%), while Diego's record is roughly 31-30 (~50.8%). Both players have experience on clay and hard and recent results in the research are mixed for each. Using Luka's documented career win rate as our baseline true probability (61.4%), the implied probability required by the 1.55 price (64.5%) exceeds our estimate, so the available moneyline does not offer positive expected value. For value on Luka we would need decimal odds above roughly 1.628. At the away price (2.40, implied ~41.7%) our estimate for Diego (~38.6% if derived as the complement to Luka, or ~50.8% per his own career rate depending on interpretation) does not clearly present value against the listed market price when using the conservative head-to-head-neutral approach; given the stronger career win rate for Luka and lack of head-to-head or injury edge for Diego in the provided research, we do not find a justified positive EV on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Luka Pavlovic career win rate in research: 35-22 (61.4%)
• • Diego Dedura-Palomero career win rate in research: ~31-30 (~50.8%)
• • Both players have matches on clay and hard in the provided history; no clear surface edge in the research
• • Market-implied probability for Luka at 1.55 is ~64.5%, higher than our 61.4% estimate