Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1/1.29) = 77.5%
• • Our conservative estimated probability = 72.0% → negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home side, implying they are the stronger pick if our information were limited
• + Low variance play if the true probability were equal or greater than market implied

Cons

• - Current price (1.29) requires >77.5% true win probability to be profitable
• - No external data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) to justify raising our probability estimate above 72%

Details

We estimate the true win probability for the home pair at 72.0% using conservative assumptions because no external form, surface, injury or H2H data were available. The market price (home 1.29) implies a 77.5% probability, so the current price requires a materially higher true win probability than our estimate to be profitable. EV calculated with our probability at the offered home odds is negative (EV = 0.72 * 1.29 - 1 = -0.071), so there is no value in backing the favorite at 1.29. Given the lack of independent information and the short price, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for home at 1.29 is ~77.5%, higher than our conservative 72% estimate
• • No external research available on form, surface, injuries or H2H — we apply conservative margins
• • Short market price demands a high true probability to produce positive expected value