M I. Higuita Barraza/X. Senties vs K. Allen/M. Stankiewicz

Highlights

• • Away implied probability (~91%) looks implausible against documented form
• • Home at 6.50 requires only ~15.4% true chance to be +EV; we estimate ~20%

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between implied and our estimated probabilities creates clear mathematical value
• + Allen's documented poor recent form supports underdog selection

Cons

• - Very limited research on doubles partners, surface and head-to-head increases variance
• - Market may be reflecting contextual info not in our dataset (e.g., partner quality, fitness) which could negate value

Details

We see a large mismatch between market pricing and the limited performance data available. The away price of 1.10 implies ~91% win probability, which is implausible given K. Allen's documented record (10-21) and poor recent run; that suggests the market is overconfident in the away side. With minimal information on partners and surface, we conservatively estimate the home pair's true chance materially exceeds the 15.4% implied by 6.50. Using a prudent estimated true probability of 20% for M I. Higuita Barraza/X. Senties, the home odds 6.50 produce positive expected value (EV = 0.20*6.50 - 1 = +0.30). We therefore recommend the home underdog at the quoted 6.50 because the implied probability is too low relative to our conservative estimate; however, confidence is limited by missing data on partners, surface, and H2H.

Key factors

• • Away price 1.10 implies ~91% win probability which is unrealistic given documented form
• • K. Allen's recent record (10-21) and weak results reduce confidence in an overwhelming favorite
• • Limited info on partners, surface and H2H increases uncertainty but also suggests market overconfidence