Highlights

• • Away implied probability (6.67%) exceeds our conservative estimated chance (4.0%).
• • At current odds the away side yields a -40% ROI by our estimate.

Pros

• + Market offers a very long price (15.0) on the underdog which could be exploitable if additional positive info appears.
• + Conservative approach avoids short-priced favorite traps where margin and low upside dominate.

Cons

• - We lack surface, form, injury, and H2H data — increases uncertainty around any positive deviation from our estimate.
• - Heavy favorite pricing leaves minimal profit potential unless our probability estimate is materially wrong in favor of the underdog.

Details

We find no value at the quoted prices. The market prices the home pair at 1.02 (implied win probability ~98.04%) and the away pair at 15.0 (implied ~6.67%). With no available intel on surface, form, injuries, or H2H and taking a conservative stance, we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 4.0%. At the current away decimal price (15.0) that gives EV = 0.04 * 15.0 - 1 = -0.40 (a -40% ROI), so the underdog is overlaid by the market relative to our conservative forecast. To consider backing the away side we would require much longer odds (see min_required_decimal_odds). Given the heavy market favoritism toward the home side and our conservative calibration, we do not recommend a wager.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: home 98.04%, away 6.67%
• • No external information on form, surface or injuries — we apply a conservative estimate
• • Underdog would need ~25.0 odds to be profitable against our 4% estimate