Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 80% (1.25); our estimate: 78%
• • Required fair price to back home at our estimate: ~1.282

Pros

• + Home is a clear market favourite, reducing variance for small stakes
• + If additional positive information arrives (injury to away, strong recent form for home) price movement could create value

Cons

• - Current market offers a small negative expected value versus our conservative probability
• - No match-specific data available to justify deviating from conservative estimates

Details

We estimate the home pair M. Bergen/A. Lazar as clear favorites but, using conservative assumptions due to lack of external form/surface/injury data, we assign the home side a true win probability of about 78%. That implies a fair price around 1.282 decimal. The market price of 1.25 implies an expected value of roughly -0.025 (a -2.5% ROI) versus our probability estimate, so there is no positive expected value on the home side at current odds. The away price (3.65) implies a win probability of 27.4% while a conservative true probability for the underdog would be closer to 22%–25%, which also produces negative EV at the available prices. Therefore we do not recommend taking either side given current odds.

Key factors

• • Heavy favourite status reflected in 1.25 market price, requiring a true win probability >80% to be profitable
• • No external match-specific data (surface, injuries, head-to-head, recent form) — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Small margin between our conservative true probability (78%) and implied market probability (80%) produces a slightly negative EV