Highlights

• • Home implied prob: 35.7% vs our estimate: 38.0%
• • Required odds for value: 2.632; current market: 2.80

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the current quoted price
• + Conservative, variance-aware estimate reduces overconfidence

Cons

• - No match-specific information (form, injuries, H2H, surface) to validate the assumption
• - Edge is modest; outcome volatility in doubles can erase the advantage

Details

We found the market pricing the away side at 1.40 (implied 71.4%) and the home side at 2.80 (implied 35.7%). No external match details were available, so we apply conservative assumptions: smaller tournament/doubles matches typically have higher variance and markets can over-favor the favorite. We estimate the home pairing's true win probability at 38.0%, which is slightly above the market-implied 35.7%, producing positive edge. At our estimated probability the home side requires minimum decimal odds of 2.632 to be value; the available 2.80 exceeds that threshold, yielding an expected value of +0.064 (6.4% ROI) on a 1-unit stake. This recommendation is cautious: the edge is modest and rests on conservative assumptions due to the absence of form/injury/H2H data, so the bet should be considered medium-risk despite a positive EV.

Key factors

• • No external match or injury data available — we use conservative priors
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for home (35.7%) is slightly below our estimate (38.0%)
• • Smaller tournament/doubles matches are higher variance and can produce market inefficiencies