M. Brooks/D. Jakupovic vs L. Hietaranta/A. Stankovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given conservative assumptions and the market price, the favorite’s implied probability roughly equals our estimate, producing essentially zero (slightly negative) EV — no value at 1.28.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability ~78.1%; our estimate 78.0%
- • EV at current odds is slightly negative (-0.0016), so we recommend no bet
Pros
- + Favorite is strongly priced, reflecting perceived match control
- + Even small differences could create value if sharper odds appear later
Cons
- - Current odds are marginally too short to be profitable under our conservative estimate
- - No additional research data available to justify deviating from a conservative probability estimate
Details
Market price (home 1.28) implies a win probability of ~78.13%. With no external scouting data returned, we apply a conservative, experience-weighted estimate for the favorites (M. Brooks/D. Jakupovic) of 78.0% win probability given standard doubles dynamics and surface neutrality. That estimate is marginally below the market-implied probability, producing a tiny negative expected value at the current odds (EV = 0.78 * 1.28 - 1 = -0.0016). Because the current book price does not exceed our required threshold for positive EV, we do not recommend backing the favorite at 1.28.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1/1.28) = 78.125% which is effectively identical to our conservative estimate
- • No additional match-specific data (injury, recent form, H2H) available — we used a conservative baseline for favorites in doubles
- • Small margin between estimated probability and market price; current odds do not offer positive EV