Highlights

• • Away implied probability 90.9% (1.10) vs our estimate 88.0%
• • M. Clark's poor results make the home side unlikely to provide value

Pros

• + Market consensus strongly favors away team, reflecting perceived strength
• + Available player data (Clark) supports skepticism about home side

Cons

• - Very limited information on partners/opponents prevents finding an edge
• - Small differences between our estimate and market imply high sensitivity to estimation error

Details

We compared the market line (Away 1.10 implied ~90.9%) to our conservative estimated win probability for the away pair. M. Clark's recent match log and overall 10-21 record through 2025 indicates weak form; although Clark has clay experience, recent results are poor and there is insufficient information on his doubles partner and the opposing team to justify overturning a market that heavily favors the away side. Our estimated true probability for the favored away team (A. Petrovic/L. Rivera) is ~88.0%, which is below the market-implied ~90.9% at 1.10, producing a negative expected value at current prices. Because no positive EV exists at available odds, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the away team (1.10 implies ~90.9% win chance)
• • M. Clark has weak recent form and a 10-21 career record through 2025
• • Insufficient data on partners and opponents increases uncertainty